The cause- and sex-specific burden of non-communicable diseases and attributable risk factors in Sudan: a population-level secondary analysis from GBD 2023

Abstract

Background: Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide and represent a growing public health challenge in low- and middle-income countries, including Sudan. Recent estimates suggest that NCDs account for more than half of all deaths in Sudan; however, a comprehensive cause- and sex-specific estimate remains limited.

Methods: This study estimates and analyzes the burden of NCDs and the level-one attributable risk factors in Sudan for both sexes and all age groups, using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023 (GBD 2023). A secondary analysis of publicly available data from the GBD platform (https://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool/) was conducted. Estimates of prevalence and mortality are presented as absolute counts, age-standardized rates and percentages with 95% confidence intervals (CI), stratified by cause and sex.

Results: In 2023, NCDs accounted for 34.2 million prevalent cases and were responsible for an estimated 170,466 deaths in both sexes in Sudan. Other noncommunicable diseases accounted for more than 27 million prevalent cases, while cardiovascular diseases were responsible for more than 60% of all NCD-related mortality in both sexes. Metabolic risk factors contributed to nearly 57% of NCDrelated deaths.

Conclusion: Given the current scenario of Sudan, NCDs control and preventive strategies must prioritize feasible, high-impact, gender-based interventions through a primary healthcare approach and effectively implement the WHO-recommended packages such as PEN and mhGAP in Sudan.